By W Driehuis;M M G Fase;H den Hartog;Universiteit van Amsterdam.;Nederlandsche Bank.;All authors
This ebook collects the revised and edited lawsuits of the convention held in honour of the fiftieth anniversary of Professor Tinbergen's first macroeconomic coverage version. Written by means of specialists either within the box of version development and coverage research, the contributions offer a useful assessment of the state-of-the-art and using macroeconomic types in our time
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Challenges for macroeconomic modelling
This publication collects the revised and edited lawsuits of the convention held in honour of the fiftieth anniversary of Professor Tinbergen's first macroeconomic coverage version. Written by way of specialists either within the box of version development and coverage research, the contributions supply a useful review of the state-of-the-art and using macroeconomic types in our time
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Sample text
Since most of the correlation coefficients are close to one this correction is of minor importance. In a few equations multicollinearity prevented obtaining plausible values for some of the coefficients. These were then assigned a reasonable value. Next to the intercepts, at most three regression coefficients per equation were estimated. Tinbergen, helped by B. Buys, performed the calculations with paper, pencil and slide rule. Redoing these calculations using a computer showed differences in the outcomes, but none of those were consequential [see Dhaene and Barten (1988)].
But even so, the point of view is that it is a deterministic process and the only thing is that we are not quite capable of exactly reproducing it, or that we can approximate it. Then there is a second class of phenomena which are not amenable to this treatment. Is that what you suggest? Professor Drèze I didn't mean to suggest that in the statement I have just made. I refer to existing models and the use of these models for forecasting purposes. This relies on forecasts of the exogenous variables, but of course these models are not the best we hope to build finally.
As a matter of fact, I should go into these models and see the way in which they deal with things like labour productivity and capacity, whether I can detect some traces of the example you give in the argument. At the moment I'm not capable of technically reproducing whether such facts are modelled or not. So the answer to this particular technical question I don't know. Professor Buiter I also was pleasantly surprised to find an expected amount of reasonableness in Professor Barro's statement.