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By Thomas Moser, Bernd Schips

This e-book is predicated at the convention "EMU and the skin World", held on the Swiss Federal Institute of know-how (ETH), December eleven, 1998. The convention was once geared up through the Swiss Institute for company Cycle study (KOF), that is supported together by means of the ETH and the Swiss Society for enterprise Cycle learn (SGK), a company comprising representatives from deepest undefined, the Swiss nationwide financial institution and public gurus. at the eve of the ultimate degree of ecu monetary and Mone­ tary Union (EMU), Zurich a very acceptable position for this type of convention. at the one hand, given its position and monetary and monetary hyperlinks with the euro region, Switzerland is without doubt one of the "outside coun­ attempts" most influenced through EMU. nonetheless, it used to be nowhere else than in Zurich the place the imaginative and prescient of "a usa of Europe" used to be expressed for the 1st time by way of Winston Churchill in his speech on September 19, 1946. for lots of EMU is a step in that path, no matter if welcome or no longer. lots of the papers showing during this quantity have been awarded on the con­ ference and feature been revised and up to date. 3 contributions, bankruptcy eleven- thirteen, have been commissioned especially for this book. in addition to the authors of the chapters, unique thank you are because of Guido Boller, Robert McCauley, Umberto Schwarz, and Charles Wyplosz.

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Under EMU-ll, the dollar demand is projected to decline by about US$134 billion under EMU-II and even by US$183 billion under EMU-IS. The projected decline in yen deposits amounts to US$20 billion under EMU-II and US$19 billion under EMU-IS. Again, the interpretation of the projected absolute changes need to take into account that they are based on 1998 bank deposit data. Inasmuch as bank deposits grow with the economies and international trade, the absolute levels of bank deposits in various currencies will change too.

15 Table 8. 227 Note: A demand shock in the USA gives symmetric results. 234 After a negative demand shock in EMU,16 the ECB decreases its interest rate, trading off between a boost in output and a positive impact on inflation and trade balance (see Table 8). At steady state, Europe undergoes a lower production level, a higher inflation and an increased trade surplus. If European countries are in a flexible exchange rate regime, national central banks overestimate the relative influence of the interest rate on prices and trade balance.

An active monetary policy is thus needed: it provokes a decrease in the exchange rate. In fine, stabilization is worse than with a fiscal policy, since output falls and inflation soars. A similar result arises after an increase in the foreign interest rate or a speCUlative shock (see Table 7). To restore output and inflation back to their initial levels (what we call optimal stabilization), the internal interest rate has to be raised so that the exchange rate remains constant, and public deficit has to be increased in order to compensate for the output effects due to the higher interest rate.

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